This is the second post in a three week series leading up to the playoffs. I hope to bring clarity around the different races and shed light on different storylines as the 2016 regular season winds down. May these posts increase your excitement for the best month of the year, October.
Playoff Picture
American League
| Team | W-L | Playoff Odds* | Opp W% | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 90-63 | 100% | .461 | 6/3 |
| Indians | 88-63 | 100% | .478 | 4/7 |
| Red Sox | 88-64 | 99.9% | .531 | 3/7 |
| Blue Jays | 83-69 | 75.9% | .553 | 7/3 |
| Orioles | 82-70 | 43.6% | .520 | 4/6 |
| Tigers | 80-70 | 35.1% | .479 | 7/5 |
| Astros | 81-71 | 28% | .453 | 7/3 |
| Mariners | 80-72 | 14% | .455 | 4/6 |
| Yankees | 79-72 | 3.3% | .567 | 6/5 |
After seven straight wins from the Red Sox, the division winners look to be set. Last week, I said the Indians had an outside shot at catching the Rangers for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Well, it's looking a lot closer now. The Indians are just one game back and the Red Sox are just 1.5 games back with 11 days left in the season. The Rangers' remaining games are against the A's, Brewers and Rays, so they will have no one to blame but themselves it they're playing Game 7 of the ALCS in Cleveland or Boston on October 22. FanGraphs likes the Blue Jays chances to host the Wild Card game. If they can get within three games of the Red Sox by this time next week, they will still have a chance at the division; Toronto hosts Boston the last weekend of the regular season. The Orioles have a one game lead over the Tigers, but the computer doesn't like their chances to hold on. The Astros, Mariners, and Yankees are all still very much alive. It should be a fun finish!
National League
| Team | W-L | Playoff Odds* | Opp W% | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 97-55 | 100% | .465 | 3/7 |
| Nationals | 89-63 | 100% | .459 | 7/3 |
| Dodgers | 86-66 | 100% | .487 | 4/6 |
| Mets | 80-72 | 68.6% | .413 | 4/6 |
| Giants | 80-72 | 66.1% | .489 | 6/4 |
| Cardinals | 80-72 | 63.1% | .497 | 7/3 |
| Pirates | 76-75 | 1.4% | .611 | 7/4 |
| Marlins | 76-76 | 0.8% | .516 | 7/3 |
Like the American League, the division races are locked up. Unlike the AL, though, the Cubs have all but clinched home-field advantage over the rest of the league. The Dodgers have an outside chance (watch out Nats, that's a curse), to catch the Nats for home-field in the NLDS. I'll say it again, that series is going to be awesome. Moving on to the Wild Cards, which apparently no team wants to win. FanGraphs gives the Mets, Giants, and Cardinals pretty much the same chances to make the playoffs. The Mets have the easiest schedule of the three, but they just got swept by the Braves so that doesn't mean much. The Giants and Cardinals both have series left with their division winners and rivals, the Dodgers and Cubs respectively. It will be very interesting to see how those series play out, with nothing really on the line for Los Angeles and Chicago. Want to root for an underdog? The Pirates are 7-3 in their last 10 and are just 3.5 games back. Andrew McCutchen has a 9-game hitting streak with 4 home runs and 13 RBI in that span.
* Playoff Odds come from FanGraphs.
Weekend Series Worth Following
4. Nationals @ Pirates: Can the Pirates stay hot? The Nats need to win to keep home-field against the Dodgers.
3. Cardinals @ Cubs: Always fun when these two teams play. Cards desperately need 2/3.
2. Colorado @ Dodgers (4 games): Vin Scully's last series at Dodger Stadium.
1. Yankees @ Blue Jays (4 games): The Rogers Centre should be packed all weekend.
September Storyline: Vin Scully
After 67 seasons, baseball must say goodbye to Vin Scully. The number of articles and videos done to honor Scully this year has been overwhelming, but they still fall short of capturing all that he has been to this great game. This weekend will be his last home series with the Dodgers (game times (CST): 9:10, 9:10, 8:10, 3:10). Do yourself a favor; block out a few hours and just take in one of these games (MLB.tv is only $3.99 and Sunday's game is on MLB Network). You won't regret it.
And if you're looking for the best Scully tribute piece, this oral history from Jayson Stark is the one you'll want to read.
October Moments
Let's take a trip back to the 1988 World Series. You know the Kirk Gibson home run, but have you listened to the whole bottom of the 9th? It's vintage Vin.