This is the first post in a three week series leading up to the playoffs. I hope to bring clarity around the different races and shed light on different storylines as the 2016 regular season winds down. May these posts increase your excitement for the best month of the year, October.
Playoff Picture
American League
| Team | W-L | Playoff Odds* | Opp W% | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 87-60 | 100% | .448 | 12/3 |
| Indians | 84-61 | 99.6% | .483 | 9/8 |
| Red Sox | 81-64 | 91.1% | .522 | 7/10 |
| Orioles | 80-65 | 66.1% | .535 | 11/6 |
| Blue Jays | 79-66 | 63.1% | .515 | 7/10 |
| Tigers | 78-67 | 37.7% | .487 | 8/9 |
| Mariners | 77-68 | 26.3% | .488 | 10/6 |
| Yankees | 78-68 | 11.4% | .574 | 6/11 |
| Astros | 76-70 | 6.3% | .461 | 7/9 |
| Royals | 74-71 | 0.4% | .504 | 11/6 |
The American League is full of intrigue. The Indians and Rangers have the Central and West locked up. The Indians have an outside shot at catching the Rangers for home-field advantage, though Texas has the second easiest schedule remaining. FanGraphs likes the Red Sox to win the East, but the Blue Jays and Orioles are within two games. The Yankees also have a legitimate chance to win the division, despite being four games back. That's because they play the Red Sox seven times, the Blue Jays four times, and the Orioles three times (a.k.a. the hardest schedule in all of baseball). The Tigers and Mariners both have relatively easy schedules; the Tigers could even make a run at the division with seven games left against Cleveland. The Astros have seven games left against the Angels, so they're definitely still in the race. And the Royals are hanging on a prayer, but they will play 11 of their 17 remaining games at home.
National League
| Team | W-L | Playoff Odds* | Opp W% | Home/Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 93-52 | 100% | .444 | 10/7 |
| Nationals | 87-59 | 100% | .456 | 7/9 |
| Dodgers | 82-63 | 99.9% | .481 | 7/10 |
| Mets | 77-69 | 75.1% | .420 | 10/6 |
| Giants | 77-68 | 70.9% | .517 | 10/7 |
| Cardinals | 76-69 | 52.1% | .522 | 7/10 |
| Marlins | 73-73 | 1.8% | .508 | 10/6 |
| Pirates | 70-74 | 0.2% | .527 | 7/11 |
The National League picture is much clearer. The Cubs and Nationals have their divisions won and the Cubs have a large lead for NL home-field advantage. The Nationals will play the Dodgers in the NLDS, with home-field going to the Nats unless they completely fall apart (I'm already jacked for Scherzer-Kershaw Game 1). The Mets have the best shot at the top Wild Card spot because of the easiest remaining schedule in baseball. Seriously, they are about to begin a 10-game homestand against the Twins, Braves, and Phillies. The Giants are best positioned for the second Wild Card, but they are just 20-35 since the All-Star break. The Giants and Cardinals play each other four times this weekend, so that will likely determine who plays the Mets. The Marlins and Pirates each have a Royals-like shot at the playoffs, but have difficult schedules remaining.
* Playoff Odds come from FanGraphs.
Weekend Series Worth Following
4. Mariners @ Astros: Each team needs to win the series to stay in the race.
3. Tigers @ Indians: Can the Tigers make the AL Central interesting?
2. Yankees @ Red Sox (4 games): It's fun to have this rivalry actually matter. Yankees need to win 3 of 4.
1. Cardinals @ Giants (4 games): The Giants start with a one game lead over the Cards. A split is likely.
September Storyline: Award Winners
Umm... who is going to win the awards? Yes, the ROYs could have been given out months ago. Corey Seager (.319/.377/.534) and Michael Fulmer (2.76 ERA in 143 IP, 5.1 bWAR) have those locked up. The rest? Yikes. The AL MVP is wide open. Mike Trout should win it, but cases could be made for Mookie Betts and Jose Altuve. David Ortiz seems to be gaining traction, as well. Over in the National League, Kris Bryant is in the driver's seat. Anthony Rizzo and Daniel Murphy are hanging around if he collapses. Neither Cy Young is determined yet, either. Scherzer, Hendricks, Lester, and Syndergaard are the candidates in the NL. It seems crazy to say, but I think Hendricks would have won it if he kept his no-hitter on Monday. Kluber, Hamels, and Zach Britton are your AL leaders. From my perspective, these awards are easily susceptible to narratives. If you're one of the players mentioned, you should hope for a "moment" that gets people talking or get a journalist to make a compelling case for you that sticks.
October Moments
With the Yankees and Red Sox set to play a huge series this weekend, let's go back to Game 7 of the ALCS on October 16 (or really 17), 2003. The Yankees scored 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th to tie the game before Aaron Boone hit a walk-off in the 11th inning. Let's hope this weekend brings more moments like this.
Until next week...