For the first time since 1935, the Cubs have won 100 games in a season. That's pretty incredible. And a bad omen; the Cubs lost the 1935 World Series to the Tigers, their fifth consecutive loss in the Fall Classic. Did you know the Cubs have lost seven World Series in a row? I didn't. Here's a graph of Cubs' win totals in the 79 seasons since 1935 (1981 and 1994 are excluded because they were strike shortened).
Cubs Wins by Season Since 1935
As you can see, the Cubs have been pretty bad. Their curse has been losing baseball. The most common individual win totals have been 77 (6 times), 75 (5), and 64 (5). They have only won 96 or more games five times in that span. But the Cubs have won 100 games this year and are bound for a long postseason run, so let’s talk about that. Specifically, let’s talk about the playoff roster.
Since the Cubs clinched a playoff berth (and home-field advantage) so early, the playoff roster has been talked about at length. Today, I just want to give my playoff roster and the thought process I used to get there. Let’s start with my starters for Game 1 of the NLDS against the Mets or Giants (sorry Cardinals fans, but you just lost to the Reds 15-2). Based on my calculations, the opposing pitcher will be either Noah Syndergaard or Johnny Cueto and the Cubs will start Jon Lester.
Game 1
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Kris Bryant
1B Anthony Rizzo
2B Ben Zobrist
SS Addison Russell
3B Javier Baez
RF Jason Heyward
C David Ross
P Jon Lester
This seems to be the way Maddon will go defensively, as this was the starting lineup for Lester’s last start on Sunday. He flip-flopped Heyward and Baez in the lineup, but I think Heyward hitting 6th could be a huge problem. Bryant, Rizzo, and Zobrist get on base so much that whoever bats 6th is going to hit with guys in scoring position all the time. Heyward and his .229/.313/.314 slash line with runners on base shouldn’t hit 6th. Next, what does the lineup look like against a left-handed starter, Madison Bumgarner for instance? Let’s assume Kyle Hendricks would start.
Game 2
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Kris Bryant
1B Anthony Rizzo
2B Ben Zobrist
SS Addison Russell
3B Javier Baez
C Willson Contreras
RF Jason Heyward
P Kyle Hendricks
If Jorge Soler is fully healthy, you could put him in LF and move Bryant to 3rd. But with Hendricks on the mound, I like the better defensive infield. Some people have suggested Heyward will sit against lefties, but I don’t see that happening. His outfield defense is just too important in the playoffs. So, those are the two starting lineups. Who fills out the rest of the roster?
Bench
IF Tommy La Stella
OF Jorge Soler
OF Chris Coghlan
OF Matt Szczur
I hate to leave off Miguel Montero (and Maddon probably won’t), but I wanted another infielder in La Stella. Szczur is your late inning pinch runner. Soler and Coghlan are your main pinch hitters. I also considered Albert Almora, but Szczur has more experience.
Starting Pitchers
Jake Arrieta
John Lackey
Not much debate here. Jason Hammel has been pretty bad down the stretch and didn’t pitch well in the playoffs last year. I’m not even sure he would be the first pitcher to fill in if another starter went down (Mike Montgomery would be my choice).
Bullpen
Aroldis Chapman
Hector Rondon
Pedro Strop
Carl Edwards Jr.
Travis Wood
Joe Smith
Mike Montgomery
Justin Grimm
This is where it gets tricky. Chapman, Rondon, Strop, Edwards, and Wood are locks. Montgomery and Grimm are also pretty safe. The last spot could be used on Joe Smith or Trevor Cahill. Smith has been the better pitcher of late and can be pretty tough on righties, so he’s my choice.
You might think these decisions on who the 24th or 25th man is aren’t important. However, I will remind you that the Cubs used their entire roster in the NLDS against the Cardinals last year, with 18 and 19 players used in Game 3 and 4 respectively. Fernando Rodney even got to shoot his arrow.