In mid-August, I posted a ranking of each contender's "Top Four" starting pitchers based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Below is an updated list. The WAR totals come from Fangraphs and are calculated from games through September 14.
As a reminder, the last team to use a three-man rotation in the playoffs was the 2009 Yankees (Sabathia, Burnett, Pettittte). Since then, every team to make the World Series has used at least four starters. This isn’t a perfect barometer of future playoff success, but it does give you an idea for what teams might be dangerous. And after all, can anything really predict October?
| Team | Playoff Odds* | Starter 1 | Starter 2 | Starter 3 | Starter 4 | Total WAR | Change Since 8/13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 99.6% | Clayton Kershaw (7.4) | Zack Greinke (5.6) | Alex Wood (2.2) | Brett Anderson (1.6) | 16.8 | +3.6 |
| Cubs | 99.3% | Jake Arrieta (5.9) | Jon Lester (4.1) | Kyle Hendricks (2.8) | Jason Hammel (2.1) | 14.9 | +3.4 |
| Astros | 85.9% | Dallas Keuchel (5.8) | Colin McHugh (3.1) | Scott Kazmir (2.8) | Lance McCullers (2.6) | 14.3 | +3.3 |
| Mets | 99.8% | Jacob deGrom (4.5) | Matt Harvey (3.5) | Noah Syndergaard (2.7) | Bartolo Colon (2.6) | 13.3 | +2.1 |
| Indians | 7.0% | Corey Kluber(5.2) | Carlos Corrasco (4) | Danny Salazar (2.5) | Trevor Bauer (1.6) | 13.3 | NA |
| Pirates | 100% | Gerritt Cole (4.6) | Francisco Liriano (3.0) | A.J. Burnett (2.7) | J.A. Happ (2.6) | 12.9 | +3 |
| Cardinals | 100% | John Lackey (3.1) | Carlos Martinez (3.1) | Michael Wacha (2.8) | Lance Lynn (2.7) | 11.7 | +1.6 |
| Blue Jays | 100% | David Price (5.7) | Mark Buehrle (2.0) | Drew Hutchison (1.7) | R.A. Dickey (1.6) | 9.4 | +1.5 |
| Yankees | 97.8% | Nathan Eovaldi (3.1) | Michael Pineda (3.0) | Masahiro Tanaka (2.3) | C.C. Sabathia (1.0) | 9.4 | +2.5 |
| Rangers | 65.5% | Cole Hamels (3.8) | Colby Lewis (2.2) | Yovani Gallardo (2.2) | Derek Holland (0.5) | 8.7 | +2.1 |
| Royals | 100% | Johnny Cueto (3.6) | Edinson Volquez (2.3) | Yordano Ventura (1.8) | Danny Duffy (0.9) | 8.6 | +1.6 |
| Angels | 13.5% | Garrett Richards (2.3) | Andrew Heaney (1.4) | Hector Santiago (1.0) | Matt Shoemaker (0.9) | 5.6 | +1.2 |
| Twins | 28.8% | Kyle Gibson (2.2) | Tommy Milone (1.2) | Phil Hughes (0.7) | Ervin Santana (0.5) | 4.6 | +1.3 |
* Playoff odds come from Fangraphs and were calculated on Tuesday, September 15.