This is the final post in a three week series leading up to the playoffs. I hope to bring clarity around the different races and shed light on different storylines as the 2016 regular season winds down. May these posts increase your excitement for the best month of the year, October.
Playoff Picture
American League
| Team | W-L | Playoff Odds* | Last Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 94-65 | 100% | Rays |
| Red Sox | 92-67 | 100% | Blue Jays |
| Indians | 91-67 | 100% | @ Royals |
| Orioles | 87-72 | 88.7% | @ Yankees |
| Blue Jays | 87-72 | 86.2% | @ Red Sox |
| Tigers | 85-73 | 14.7% | @ Braves |
| Mariners | 85-74 | 10.4% | Athletics |
The Rangers had a good week and just need to win one game against the Rays this weekend to secure home-field advantage. That means we could be line for a Blue Jays-Rangers rematch in the first round. Can't wait. The Red Sox and Indians will play each other, but where Game 1 of that series will be is still up in the air. The Indians hold the upper hand, as they play the Royals while the Sox have the Jays. Let's get into the Wild Card. The Orioles and Blue Jays control their own destiny. If either loses, the Tigers have a chance to force a play-in-game. What's really interesting is that the Indians and Tigers have a postponed game to make up on Monday if needed. So if the Tigers can sweep the Braves (last series at Turner Field, by the way) and the O's or Jays lose one game, that game would be played. With their series against the Red Sox starting on Thursday, how would the Indians handle that game? Lastly, the Mariners need a miracle. FanGraphs puts their chances at 10.4%, which I think is pretty generous. They need to sweep the A's and hope for the O's or Jays to lose two of three (and the Tigers to lose once).
National League
| Team | W-L | Playoff Odds* | Last Series |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 101-57 | 100% | @ Reds |
| Nationals | 93-66 | 100% | Marlins |
| Dodgers | 91-68 | 100% | @ Giants |
| Mets | 85-74 | 97.4% | @ Phillies |
| Giants | 84-75 | 72.9% | Dodgers |
| Cardinals | 83-76 | 29.7% | Pirates |
The National League is very straightforward. The Nationals will host the Dodgers starting a week from today. The Cubs will host the Mets, Cardinals, or Giants on that Friday, as well. The Cardinals are in the same position as the Tigers, needing a sweep themselves and hoping for a loss from the team one game ahead of them. The Mets are very safe, as their magic number sits at two.
* Playoff Odds come from FanGraphs.
Weekend Series Worth Following
4. Pirates @ Cardinals: The Cards have been terrible at home all year; can they win three in a row there to end the season?
3. Orioles @ Yankees: Can the Yankees spoil another AL East rival's playoff celebration?
2. Blue Jays @ Red Sox: Different things at stake, but both teams need 2/3.
1. Dodgers @ Giants: Vin Scully's last series and everything on the line for the Giants.
September Storyline: Attendance
I'm a huge baseball attendance nerd. I check this page almost every day. Heading into the weekend, MLB attendance as whole is down 0.76% from 2015. That's about where it has rested at all season. Five teams have topped 3 million fans so far: Dodgers, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Giants, and Cubs. The Yankees and Angels will get there this weekend, making it seven (just four in 2015). The Rays have serious attendance issues, averaging just 15,879 per game. That's last in baseball by almost 3,000 fans. If the current playoff teams hold their spots, they come in at 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 14th, 20th, and 28th.
October Moments
The Red Sox and Indians will face off in the playoffs for the first time since the 2007ALCS. Few people (including myself) remember that the Indians were up 3-1 in that series before the Red Sox won the last three games, outscoring Cleveland 30-5. This week's moment goes back further, however, to the 1999 ALDS. This was definitely the steroid era, as 79 runs were scored in a five-game series. And Troy O'Leary had seven RBI in one game.