On Thursday night, we released the first edition of the 2017 Over/Under standings. This is the second year doing this game and it's one of our favorite things about the podcast and website. So if you played, thanks! And if you didn't, check back next March.
Whether you submitted an entry or not, I think it's interesting to look for general trends among the 52 amateur prognosticators (love that word). Most teams' over/under lines split the submissions pretty evenly. In today's post, I want to look at the seven teams that had higher than 66% in one direction and then see how those teams are doing so far this year. In other words, are the people that play our game total geniuses or absolute idiots?
2017 O/U Trends
| Team | O/U Line | Direction | On Pace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 70.5 | 78% Under | 91 |
| Yankees | 82.5 | 77% Over | 103 |
| Blue Jays | 84.5 | 69% Over | 68 |
| Athletics | 73.5 | 67% Under | 74 |
| Marlins | 76.5 | 67% Under | 62 |
| Astros | 89.5 | 67% Over | 113 |
| Dodgers | 93.5 | 67% Over | 95 |
The majority was right on four of the seven. The Yankees, Marlins, Astros, and Dodgers are performing in line with our expectations. The A's are kind of a wash because it's so close. We really missed on the Reds and Jays—in opposite directions. If you could re-pick these seven, would you change your preseason projection? I'd go with the following:
- Reds: Under (Preseason: Under)
- Yankees: Over (Over)
- Blue Jays: Under (Over)
- Athletics: Under (Under)
- Marlins: Under (Over)
- Astros: Over (Over)
- Dodgers: Over (Under)
Baseball is here! And more importantly, that means the over/under game is back. It seems as though everyone is an expert this time of year. Somehow we convince ourselves that we are better at predicting baseball outcomes than everyone else. Well, AFITB is putting that to the test for the third year in a row. Think you know more about baseball than us? You probably do. But go ahead and prove it anyway.